Junior Messias
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Junior Messias's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (675 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 49.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €474k vs market €1.1M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 675 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.65
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €285k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change RW -> SS.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -60% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 675 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | SS | 20 | 675 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 1472 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RW | 17 | 844 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.42 | 1513 | 1444 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CM | 18 | 1057 | 31% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 1508 | 1445 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Milan | Serie A | RW | 25 | 1508 | 44% | 5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 1449 | 1622 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | AC Milan | Serie A | RW | 26 | 1431 | 42% | 5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.27 | 1459 | 1683 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | FC Crotone | Serie A | SS | 36 | 3218 | 94% | 9 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.59 | 1467 | 1253 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 9 | 311 | 1 | 0 | 1691 |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 53 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 4 | 209 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 2 | 115 | 1 | 1 | 1831 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | FC Crotone | 1 | 74 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Michel Bundesliga · 2024 | 34 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Sidney Govou Ligue 1 · 2013 | 34 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Radamel Falcao Laliga · 2022 | 36 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Dyego Sousa Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €800k | €50k | fell |
| Stevan Jovetić Bundesliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Jérémie Aliadière Ligue 1 · 2017 | 34 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Josan Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Nicola Sansone Serie A · 2024 | 33 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2024 | AC Milan | Genoa | €1.5M | €3.0M |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Genoa | AC Milan | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 11 Aug 2023 | AC Milan | Genoa | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 7 Jul 2022 | Crotone | AC Milan | €6.2M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | AC Milan | Crotone | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Crotone | AC Milan | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Gozzano | Crotone | Free / loan | €175k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Crotone | Gozzano | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Gozzano | Crotone | €400k | €150k |
| 29 Dec 2017 | Without Club | Gozzano | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Chieri | Without Club | Unknown | €125k |
| 23 Jul 2016 | Casale | Chieri | €120k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Career break | Casale | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Cruzeiro U20 | Career break | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.