Dardan Shabanhaxhaj
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dardan Shabanhaxhaj's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.59x the positional average in the league (1589 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1589 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1339
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €695k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1589 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | ST | 22 | 1589 | 59% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.30 | 1330 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | ST | 23 | 1502 | 56% | 5 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 1290 | 1322 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | LW | 10 | 427 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.45 | 1356 | 1271 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 5 | 303 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 8 | 599 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jóhann Berg Gudmundsson Eredivisie · 2014 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Ousmane Dramé Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Rydell Poepon Eredivisie · 2013 | 26 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Dieumerci Ndongala Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 25 | €1.7M | €1.5M | flat |
| Tosin Kehinde Superliga · 2023 | 25 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Vedat Muriqi Super Lig · 2017 | 23 | €900k | €2.5M | rose |
| Musashi Suzuki Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €1.5M | €450k | fell |
| Sigurd Haugen Superliga · 2023 | 26 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2024 | NS Mura | Rubin Kazan | €1.2M | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sturm Graz | NS Mura | €350k | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | NS Mura | Sturm Graz | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sturm Graz | NS Mura | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | SV Kapfenberg | Sturm Graz | Free / loan | €250k |
| 16 Aug 2021 | Sturm Graz | SV Kapfenberg | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Sturm Graz II | Sturm Graz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Stmk.-Sturm U18 | Sturm Graz II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Stmk.-Sturm U16 | Stmk.-Sturm U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Stmk.-Sturm U15 | Stmk.-Sturm U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sturm Graz Yth | Stmk.-Sturm U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | GAK Youth | Sturm Graz Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.