Koen Kostons
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Koen Kostons's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (2888 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2888 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1304
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €728k – €2.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -36% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | ST | 34 | 2888 | 94% | 11 | 6 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 1304 | 1186 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 7 | 260 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.74 | 1414 | 1201 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 177 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinho Gano Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Lennart Thy Eredivisie · 2018 | 26 | €1.0M | €675k | fell |
| Queensy Menig Eredivisie · 2021 | 26 | €900k | €2.8M | rose |
| Simon Diédhiou Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €850k | €250k | fell |
| Simon Hedlund Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €1.4M | €1.2M | flat |
| Tony Watt Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 28 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Adam Buksa Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Aylton Boa Morte Liga Portugal · 2020 | 27 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | SC Paderborn | PEC Zwolle | €100k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | KV Kortrijk | SC Paderborn | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jan 2025 | SC Paderborn | KV Kortrijk | Free / loan | €750k |
| 9 Jan 2024 | MVV Maastricht | SC Paderborn | €150k | €650k |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Dalkurd | MVV Maastricht | Free / loan | €250k |
| 27 Jul 2021 | MVV Maastricht | Dalkurd | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | MVV 19 | MVV Maastricht | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | MVV Youth | MVV 19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.