Benedict Hollerbach
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Benedict Hollerbach's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-12.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-11.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-9.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (884 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 61.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.7M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 884 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1506
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €9.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 55 pts; changed club; team strength up (+91 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -69% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 884 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 14 | 884 | 29% | 1 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 1506 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 2555 | 83% | 9 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 1486 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 1283 | 42% | 5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 1503 | 1431 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1327 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 107 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincenzo Grifo Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €7.5M | €5.5M | fell |
| Vaclav Cerny Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Joselu Premier League · 2016 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Maxime Lestienne Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Anthony Limbombe Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andy Delort Ligue 1 · 2017 | 26 | €5.0M | €12.5M | rose |
| Borja Bastón Premier League · 2017 | 25 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jairo Samperio Bundesliga · 2017 | 24 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Union Berlin | Mainz | €10.0M | €12.0M |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Wehen Wiesbaden | Union Berlin | €2.0M | €1.2M |
| 10 Sept 2020 | Stuttgart II | Wehen Wiesbaden | €300k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Stuttgart U19 | Stuttgart II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Bayern U19 | Stuttgart U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Bayern U17 | FC Bayern U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | TSV 1860 Yth. | B. München Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.