Killian Sardella

24 yrs · Right-back (also LB) · Belgium
RSC Anderlecht · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 174 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€973k – €3.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.4M – €4.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€914k – €3.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.7M – €3.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€973k – €3.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €4.1M
Projected value (24 months)€914k – €3.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Killian Sardella's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 36

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage48.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.0M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-29% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1585 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
48 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1393
Opponent strength
1365
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€914k – €3.3M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-82 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -41% to -26%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1585 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
76 (DEF)
Relative output kept
67%–160%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueRB25158559%010.060.06136513930.65
2024/25RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueRB24196873%010.050.06136914760.63
2023/24RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueRB25198073%040.180.11137315160.63
2022/23RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueLB16112237%020.160.11132014320.58
2021/22RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueRB52528%000.000.07137014590.49
2020/21RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueRB14107935%000.000.04132814570.55
2019/20RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueRB18141054%000.000.04137914430.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Playoff IRSC Anderlecht7453001491
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueRSC Anderlecht8482011501
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingRSC Anderlecht2102001386
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingRSC Anderlecht190001303
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingRSC Anderlecht2180001307

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Egor Sorokin
Premier Liga · 2020
25€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Reggie Cannon
Liga Portugal · 2022
24€4.0M€2.2Mfell
Jere Uronen
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
26€2.8M€2.0Mfell
Koray Altinay
Super Lig · 2015
24€2.6M€1.8Mfell
Abdul Mumin
Liga Portugal · 2022
24€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Ionuț Nedelcearu
Premier Liga · 2020
24€3.2M€1.0Mfell
Mattias Johansson
Eredivisie · 2017
25€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Mathieu Peybernes
Ligue 1 · 2016
26€1.5M€900kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2019Anderlecht U21RSC AnderlechtUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2019Anderlecht U18Anderlecht U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Anderlecht U17Anderlecht U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Anderlecht Yth.Anderlecht U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.