
Killian Sardella
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Killian Sardella's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1585 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1365
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €914k – €3.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-82 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -41% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1585 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 25 | 1585 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1365 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 24 | 1968 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1369 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 25 | 1980 | 73% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 1373 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 16 | 1122 | 37% | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1320 | 1432 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 5 | 252 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1370 | 1459 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 14 | 1079 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1328 | 1457 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 18 | 1410 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1379 | 1443 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | RSC Anderlecht | 7 | 453 | 0 | 0 | 1491 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 8 | 482 | 0 | 1 | 1501 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1386 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1303 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1307 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Sorokin Premier Liga · 2020 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Reggie Cannon Liga Portugal · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Jere Uronen Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 26 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Koray Altinay Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €2.6M | €1.8M | fell |
| Abdul Mumin Liga Portugal · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Ionuț Nedelcearu Premier Liga · 2020 | 24 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mattias Johansson Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mathieu Peybernes Ligue 1 · 2016 | 26 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Anderlecht U18 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Anderlecht U17 | Anderlecht U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.