Ionuț Nedelcearu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ionuț Nedelcearu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €611k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2219 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1212
- Opponent strength
- 1335
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €524k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 44 pts; relative output up 254% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -29% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2219 | 82% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1335 | 1212 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CB | 12 | 1035 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1309 | 1260 | 0.55 |
| 2020/21 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | CB | 18 | 1408 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1290 | 1363 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | CB | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1398 | 1271 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | CB | 20 | 1775 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1395 | 1333 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2340 | 87% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1418 | 1318 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 900 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1403 | 1403 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 5 | 166 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Palermo FC | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Ufa | 6 | 532 | 0 | 0 | 1391 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Dinamo 1948 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1591 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Sainsbury Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Mortadha Ben Ouanes Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Silvije Begic Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Arjan Swinkels Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Güray Vural Super Lig · 2019 | 31 | €650k | €775k | flat |
| Maracás Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Vincent Sasso Liga Portugal · 2019 | 28 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Kirill Kombarov Premier Liga · 2017 | 30 | €700k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2025 | Palermo | Akron Tolyatti | €130k | €750k |
| 27 Jul 2022 | Crotone | Palermo | €900k | €1.0M |
| 16 Jul 2021 | AEK Athens | Crotone | €1.3M | €2.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Ufa | AEK Athens | €550k | €3.5M |
| 15 Feb 2018 | FC Dinamo | Ufa | €700k | €1.5M |
| 1 Oct 2013 | Dinamo II | FC Dinamo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Dinamo U19 | Dinamo II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FC Dinamo Yth | Dinamo U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.