Adrian Benedyczak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adrian Benedyczak's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-6.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.49x the positional average in the league (1652 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.7M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1652 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.71
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.79
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1253
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €6.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -65% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1652 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | ST | 14 | 1166 | 38% | 10 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 1272 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | ST | 14 | 486 | 14% | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.68 | 1511 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LW | 9 | 207 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1491 | 1342 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 3 | 139 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Twumasi Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €2.4M | €800k | fell |
| Jean-Luc Dompé Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €1.4M | €2.2M | rose |
| Smail Prevljak Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Rober González Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Beto Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €5.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Reziuan Mirzov Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tomas Necid Eredivisie · 2015 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.3M | flat |
| Benson Manuel Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 22 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Kasimpasa | Parma | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 3 Feb 2026 | Parma | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Pogon Szczecin | Parma | €2.4M | €500k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Chrobry Glogow | Pogon Szczecin | Free / loan | €300k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Pogon Szczecin | Chrobry Glogow | Free / loan | €300k |
| 2 Mar 2018 | Pogon U19 | Pogon Szczecin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Pogon Youth | Pogon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.