Lucas Lund
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Lund's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €790k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1980 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1286
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 59 pts; team strength up (+64 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -56% to +28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 67 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–125%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Viborg FF | Superliga | GK | 22 | 1980 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1267 | 1286 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Viborg FF | Superliga | GK | 9 | 810 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1317 | 1222 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Viborg FF | Superliga | GK | 17 | 1485 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1309 | 1261 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Viborg FF | Superliga | GK | 22 | 1980 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1298 | 1327 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Viborg FF | Superliga | GK | 16 | 1440 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1297 | 1234 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 7 | 660 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Viborg FF | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1363 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Padt Eredivisie · 2015 | 25 | €2.3M | €3.5M | rose |
| Martin Hansen Eredivisie · 2015 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Hervé Koffi Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €2.4M | €1.5M | fell |
| Nikolay Sysuev Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Gaëtan Coucke Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
| Nick Marsman Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €1.5M | €450k | fell |
| Ilya Pomazun Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Viborg FF U19 | Viborg FF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Viborg FF Youth | FK Viborg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.