Tommy St. Jago
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tommy St. Jago's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.7M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1683 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1370
- Opponent strength
- 1387
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €878k – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; changed club; team strength up (+252 Elo); league level up (+62 Elo); relative output up 140% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -51% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1683 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 21 | 1683 | 62% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1387 | 1370 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2925 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1313 | 1118 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CB | 3 | 191 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1481 | 1358 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CB | 24 | 2055 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1333 | 1411 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CB | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1305 | 1418 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KV Mechelen | 7 | 600 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 145 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Django Warmerdam Eredivisie · 2022 | 27 | €1.2M | €650k | fell |
| Toni Borevković Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Núrio Fortuna Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Jubal Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €1.3M | €550k | fell |
| Wilker Ángel Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Ugur Demirok Super Lig · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Mikhail Merkulov Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Rochdi Achenteh Eredivisie · 2014 | 26 | €900k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Willem II | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Utrecht | Willem II | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Utrecht U21 | Utrecht | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Utrecht U19 | Utrecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Utrecht U17 | Utrecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Utrecht Youth | Utrecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Ajax Youth | Utrecht Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.