Nicolás Fonseca
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolás Fonseca's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (1020 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1020 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -57% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1020 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | DM | 19 | 1020 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1492 | 1294 | 0.95 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Óscar Melendo Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Zdravko Kuzmanovic Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Bonke Innocent Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Toma Bašić Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €2.8M | €3.0M | flat |
| Tom Trybull Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.2M | fell |
| Pablo Galdames Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Carlos Gruezo Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Alberto Grassi Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Real Oviedo | León | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2026 | León | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 15 Jan 2025 | River Plate | León | €2.1M | €2.7M |
| 31 Dec 2023 | Wanderers | River Plate | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 16 Aug 2023 | River Plate | Wanderers | Free / loan | €550k |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Wanderers | River Plate | €2.1M | €550k |
| 15 Jul 2022 | River Plate | Wanderers | Free / loan | €125k |
| 21 Oct 2021 | Without Club | River Plate | Unknown | €75k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Novara | Without Club | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Novara U19 | Novara | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Without Club | Novara U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.