Elayis Tavsan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Elayis Tavsan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (817 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 15th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 817 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €741k – €2.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -44% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 817 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | RW | 15 | 817 | 27% | 2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 1265 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | RW | 8 | 339 | 11% | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 1279 | 1336 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | RW | 3 | 47 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1493 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | RW | 32 | 2559 | 84% | 3 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 1348 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | RW | 30 | 2248 | 73% | 5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.35 | 1337 | 1243 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Reggiana 1919 | 1 | 68 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cesena FC | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 135 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 146 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 244 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Goodwillie Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 25 | €1.3M | €700k | fell |
| Simon Hedlund Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Rafael Camacho Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nikola Cumic Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Tyler Boyd Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €1.5M | €425k | fell |
| Houssam Ghacha Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.1M | €1.0M | flat |
| Luciano Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Jamie Maclaren Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 25 | €1.0M | €725k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | Hellas Verona | Samsunspor | €1.5M | €1.5M |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Reggiana | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 16 Jul 2025 | Hellas Verona | Reggiana | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Cesena | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Hellas Verona | Cesena | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 23 Jan 2024 | NEC Nijmegen | Hellas Verona | €500k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sparta R. | NEC Nijmegen | €200k | €425k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Telstar | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €425k |
| 19 Aug 2019 | Sparta R. | Telstar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sparta R. U17 | Sparta U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sparta Youth | Sparta R. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Victoria '04 Y. | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.