Fabian de Keijzer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabian de Keijzer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 7.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €167k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 720 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1060
- Opponent strength
- 1354
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €250k – €524k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 76 pts; team strength down (-147 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -51% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 720 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | GK | 8 | 720 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1354 | 1060 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1314 | 1207 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1344 | 1392 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | GK | 14 | 1215 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1345 | 1358 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 4 | 420 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devis Epassy Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €250k | €300k | rose |
| Danylo Kucher Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Fotis Koutzavasilis Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Nikolaos Giannakopoulos Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Peter Leeuwenburgh Eredivisie · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Filip Kurto Eredivisie · 2016 | 25 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Louis Bostyn Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 29 | €500k | €225k | fell |
| Georgios Athanasiadis Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €500k | €600k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2023 | Utrecht | Heracles Almelo | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Utrecht U21 | Utrecht | Unknown | €325k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Utrecht U19 | Utrecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Utrecht U17 | Utrecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Utrecht Youth | Utrecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | RODA '46 Yth. | Utrecht Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.