Willem Geubbels
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Willem Geubbels's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-4.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-6.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (1012 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1012 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1454
- Opponent strength
- 1527
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €6.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -46% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1012 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 24 | 1012 | 33% | 5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 1527 | 1454 | 0.88 |
| 2021/22 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | ST | 22 | 531 | 16% | 2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 1438 | 1457 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 14 | 283 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.50 | 1475 | 1549 | 0.75 |
| 2018/19 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1390 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 31 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1383 | 1645 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC St. Gallen 1879 | 6 | 444 | 2 | 0 | 1336 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1561 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khouma Babacar Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €8.0M | €5.2M | fell |
| Anthony Mounier Ligue 1 · 2013 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Nemanja Radonjic Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Adrien Hunou Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Alberto Paloschi Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Firmin Mubele Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €6.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Raúl García Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2025 | FC St. Gallen | Paris FC | €9.0M | €10.0M |
| 23 Jan 2023 | Monaco | FC St. Gallen | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Nantes | Monaco | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Monaco | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lyon | Monaco | €20.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.