Raúl García
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Raúl García's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-5.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (1013 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.8M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1013 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.71
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.59
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1463
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -14% to +169%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1013 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | ST | 36 | 1013 | 30% | 7 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 1463 | 1427 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | ST | 32 | 731 | 21% | 4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.59 | 1533 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | ST | 35 | 1346 | 39% | 6 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 1483 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2019/20 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | ST | 3 | 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 1527 | 1481 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 371 | 7 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 200 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | CA Osasuna | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CA Osasuna | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Lestienne Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Ignacio Pussetto Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.7M | flat |
| Will Buckley Premier League · 2015 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kike Barja Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Duje Cop Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Jóhann Berg Gudmundsson Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Romain Del Castillo Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Dwight Gayle Premier League · 2015 | 26 | €4.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2023 | Real Betis | CA Osasuna | €7.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | CD Mirandés | Real Betis | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Real Betis | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Betis Deportivo | Real Betis | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Betis U19 | Betis Deportivo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Almería U19 | Betis U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | UD Almería Yout | Almería U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.