Aleksandr Sobolev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandr Sobolev's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-11.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1657 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1657 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1311
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €5.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -60% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1657 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 1657 | 61% | 10 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 1311 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 23 | 877 | 32% | 4 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.33 | 1250 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 1 | 67 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1272 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 27 | 1791 | 66% | 5 | 6 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 1323 | 1383 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 2032 | 75% | 13 | 8 | 0.93 | 0.63 | 1326 | 1394 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 1767 | 65% | 9 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.55 | 1350 | 1359 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 22 | 1519 | 56% | 14 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.78 | 1337 | 1420 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | ST | 18 | 1583 | 59% | 10 | 3 | 0.74 | 0.84 | 1411 | 1280 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 11 | 625 | 23% | 2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 1375 | 1392 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Enisey Krasnoyarsk | Premier Liga | ST | 10 | 639 | 24% | 3 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.92 | 1419 | 1226 | 0.69 |
| 2018/19 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | ST | 12 | 565 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.49 | 1396 | 1267 | 0.69 |
| 2016/17 | Tom Tomsk | Premier Liga | ST | 13 | 1112 | 41% | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.60 | 1434 | 1185 | 0.70 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 10 | 430 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 409 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 6 | 536 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 5 | 322 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 5 | 310 | 4 | 1 | 1620 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 127 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 115 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 164 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Júnior Moraes Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Bruma Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Tiquinho Soares Liga Portugal · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Brown Ideye Super League 1 · 2016 | 28 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Taison Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Oussama Idrissi Eredivisie · 2023 | 27 | €5.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Marlos Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Jeremain Lens Super Lig · 2019 | 32 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Spartak Moscow | Zenit S-Pb | €10.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | KS Samara | Spartak Moscow | €4.5M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Spartak Moscow | KS Samara | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 29 Jan 2020 | KS Samara | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Enisey | KS Samara | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | KS Samara | Enisey | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Tom Tomsk | KS Samara | €366k | €350k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Tom Tomsk II | Tom Tomsk | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Din. Barnaul II | Tom Tomsk II | €3k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Ac. D. Barnaul | Din. Barnaul II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.