Lyle Foster
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lyle Foster's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-18.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-12.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-10.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (1372 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.2M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1372 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.64
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1602
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €10.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -41% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1372 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | ST | 26 | 1372 | 40% | 3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.64 | 1602 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | Burnley FC | Premier League | ST | 24 | 1909 | 56% | 5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 1575 | 1366 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 21 | 1548 | 51% | 8 | 4 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 1330 | 1333 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | ST | 5 | 120 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1326 | 1329 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 18 | 941 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 1400 | 1202 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 61 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1516 | 1426 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | South Africa | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 4 | 239 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Mitrović Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €16.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Ben Brereton Díaz Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jaidon Anthony Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €9.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| André Schürrle Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €12.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Abel Hernández Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Eduardo Vargas Premier League · 2015 | 26 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Junior Stanislas Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Marcos André Laliga · 2021 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2023 | KVC Westerlo | Burnley | €11.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Guimarães B | KVC Westerlo | €1.0M | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | KVC Westerlo | Guimarães B | Free / loan | €800k |
| 7 Jul 2021 | Guimarães B | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Vit. Guimarães | Guimarães B | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 13 Aug 2020 | Monaco | Vit. Guimarães | €1.2M | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Cercle Brugge | Monaco | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Monaco | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Jan 2019 | Orlando Pirates | Monaco | €1.2M | €175k |
| 7 Sept 2017 | O. Pirates YD | Orlando Pirates | Unknown | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.