Aron Dønnum
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aron Dønnum's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-8.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-5.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (2424 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2424 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €5.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 83% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -31% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RM | 28 | 2424 | 79% | 4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 1484 | 1442 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RM | 32 | 2699 | 88% | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1465 | 1437 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RW | 27 | 1601 | 52% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 1468 | 1437 | 0.87 |
| 2023/24 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 5 | 430 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 1350 | 1334 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 33 | 2500 | 82% | 3 | 6 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 1318 | 1381 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 8 | 625 | 1 | 2 | 1663 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Toulouse | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Chavalerin Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Younousse Sankharé Ligue 1 · 2017 | 28 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Luca Antonelli Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €7.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Marco Parolo Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €4.5M | €8.5M | rose |
| Adilson Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Denis Glushakov Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Erman Kilic Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €3.7M | €650k | fell |
| Ivelin Popov Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €9.5M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Standard Liège | Toulouse | €4.5M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Vålerenga | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Mar 2022 | Standard Liège | Vålerenga | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Vålerenga | Standard Liège | €1.5M | €800k |
| 22 Jul 2018 | HamKam | Vålerenga | Free / loan | €50k |
| 28 Mar 2018 | Vålerenga | HamKam | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Dec 2016 | Vålerenga Yth. | Vålerenga | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Eidsvold Yth. | Vålerenga Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.