Rıdvan Yılmaz

25 yrs · Left-back (also RB) · Türkiye
Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 174 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.3M – €6.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€764k – €2.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.3M – €6.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.3M – €489k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.3M – €6.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€764k – €2.8M
Projected value (24 months)€2.3M – €6.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rıdvan Yılmaz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-6.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 41

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage45.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.7M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-31% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2088 (68% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
46 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1350
Opponent strength
1266
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.3M – €6.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts; changed club; team strength down (-113 Elo); role change RB -> LB.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -41% to +7%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigLB25208868%010.040.08126613500.40
2024/25Rangers FCScottish PremiershipRB17110537%020.160.09124214630.34
2023/24Rangers FCScottish PremiershipLB22147650%110.120.08122615010.34
2022/23Rangers FCScottish PremiershipLB41545%000.000.05122515270.40
2021/22Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigLB27204260%340.310.21125113420.42
2020/21Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigLB18114532%120.240.16130214080.37
2019/20Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigLB650016%010.180.10127814010.45
2018/19Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigLB120%000.000.11138515210.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueRangers FC7422001580
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingRangers FC2167001483
2024/25Scottish Fa CupRangers FC25700—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupRangers FC426700—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueRangers FC2180001660
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueRangers FC190001769
2022/23Scottish Fa CupRangers FC24000—
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingRangers FC123001501
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü2135001660
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü1120001409

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Harold Moukoudi
Super League 1 · 2023
26€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Marcelo Saracchi
Super Lig · 2021
23€5.5M€1.5Mfell
Jailson
Super Lig · 2020
25€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Lazaros Rota
Super League 1 · 2023
26€1.8M€3.0Mrose
Denys Popov
Premier Liga · 2024
25€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Bright Osayi-Samuel
Super Lig · 2022
24€8.0M€8.5Mflat
Edgar Ié
Super Lig · 2021
27€4.8M€2.4Mfell
Kaio
Premier Liga · 2021
26€1.8M€2.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
23 Aug 2025RangersBesiktas€2.9M€3.5M
25 Jul 2022BesiktasRangers€4.0M€6.5M
20 Apr 2020Besiktas U19BesiktasUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2019BesiktasBesiktas U19Unknown€50k
26 Feb 2019Besiktas U19BesiktasUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2018Besiktas U17Besiktas U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Besiktas U16Besiktas U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Besiktas YthBesiktas U16UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Rıdvan Yılmaz · MoneyballAI