
Rıdvan Yılmaz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rıdvan Yılmaz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-6.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.7M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2088 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1350
- Opponent strength
- 1266
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €6.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts; changed club; team strength down (-113 Elo); role change RB -> LB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -41% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 25 | 2088 | 68% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1266 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 17 | 1105 | 37% | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1242 | 1463 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 22 | 1476 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1226 | 1501 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 4 | 154 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1225 | 1527 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 27 | 2042 | 60% | 3 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 1251 | 1342 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 18 | 1145 | 32% | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 1302 | 1408 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 6 | 500 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 1278 | 1401 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1385 | 1521 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Rangers FC | 7 | 422 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Rangers FC | 2 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 2 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 4 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Rangers FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Rangers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1769 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Rangers FC | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1501 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1409 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Moukoudi Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Marcelo Saracchi Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €5.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jailson Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Lazaros Rota Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Denys Popov Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €8.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Edgar Ié Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €4.8M | €2.4M | fell |
| Kaio Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | Rangers | Besiktas | €2.9M | €3.5M |
| 25 Jul 2022 | Besiktas | Rangers | €4.0M | €6.5M |
| 20 Apr 2020 | Besiktas U19 | Besiktas | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Besiktas | Besiktas U19 | Unknown | €50k |
| 26 Feb 2019 | Besiktas U19 | Besiktas | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Besiktas U17 | Besiktas U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Besiktas U16 | Besiktas U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Besiktas Yth | Besiktas U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.