Tiago Gouveia

25 yrs · Right winger (also LW) · Portugal
OGC Nice · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 176 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.6M – €4.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€868k – €3.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €4.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.4M – €1.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.6M – €4.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€868k – €3.0M
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €4.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tiago Gouveia's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (527 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage37.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.0M vs market €3.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-31% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
527 (17% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.28
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
37 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1358
Opponent strength
1539
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €4.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -60% to -20%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Small sample: 527 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26OGC NiceLigue 1RW1552617%000.000.28153913580.88
2025/26SL BenficaLiga PortugalRW110%000.000.15115816340.58
2024/25SL BenficaLiga PortugalLW41003%111.800.33126116320.51
2023/24SL BenficaLiga PortugalRW1353417%230.840.31131216030.58
2022/23GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalRW29240379%550.370.53138112520.68

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueOGC Nice7380201454
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica113001504
2025/26Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica12001610
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica329001637
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica27001553

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Andrea Favilli
Serie A · 2020
23€4.5M€1.5Mfell
Jovane Cabral
Serie A · 2024
26€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Stéphane Diarra
Ligue 1 · 2022
24€1.5M€1.2Mfell
Alessio Zerbin
Serie A · 2024
25€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Nemanja Tomic
Super Lig · 2014
26€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Landry Dimata
Laliga · 2022
25€2.2M€1.8Mflat
Ebrima Colley
Serie A · 2021
21€4.0M€3.0Mfell
Pavel Nekhaychik
Premier Liga · 2014
26€1.5M€1.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026NiceBenficaFree / loan€3.5M
31 Aug 2025BenficaNiceFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2023EstorilBenficaFree / loan€3.5M
27 Jul 2022BenficaEstorilFree / loan€1.5M
1 Apr 2022Benfica BBenficaUnknown€575k
1 Jul 2020Benfica U23Benfica BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Benfica U17Benfica U23UnknownData unavailable
4 Jul 2017Sporting U17Benfica U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Sporting Sub-15Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Sporting Yth.Sporting Sub-15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Tires Fo.Sporting Yth.UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Sporting Yth.Tires Fo.UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Tires Fo.Sporting Yth.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.