
Cherif Ndiaye
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cherif Ndiaye's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-5.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1422 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.8M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -66% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1422 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1280
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -70% (IQR -79% to -56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1422 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | ST | 23 | 1422 | 46% | 7 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 1280 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | ST | 2 | 167 | 5% | 1 | 1 | 1.08 | 0.38 | 1140 | 1250 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | ST | 12 | 810 | 25% | 8 | 2 | 1.11 | 0.70 | 1333 | 1410 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Göztepe | Super Lig | ST | 39 | 2794 | 78% | 10 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 1281 | 1200 | 0.37 |
| 2018/19 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 1 | 45 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1357 | 1276 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 4 | 52 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 1291 | 1277 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 3 | 51 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 1391 | 1253 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Red Star Belgrade | 5 | 370 | 2 | 2 | 1458 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 5 | 64 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Red Star Belgrade | 8 | 570 | 2 | 1 | 1643 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Red Star Belgrade | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1573 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Adana Demirspor | 6 | 488 | 4 | 2 | 1439 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Red Star Belgrade | 6 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1732 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famara Diédhiou Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €500k | fell |
| Britt Assombalonga Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €3.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fabio Borini Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
| Ahmed Hassan Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Fernando Andrade Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Serdar Dursun Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €3.5M | €750k | fell |
| Ohi Omoijuanfo Superliga · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €450k | fell |
| Théo Bongonda Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2025 | Red Star | Samsunspor | €4.0M | €5.0M |
| 4 Sept 2023 | Adana Demirspor | Red Star | €4.0M | €2.2M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | SH Port | Adana Demirspor | €600k | €2.2M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Adana Demirspor | SH Port | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 28 Jan 2023 | SH Port | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 6 Apr 2022 | Göztepe | SH Port | €1.2M | €2.2M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | HNK Gorica | Göztepe | €1.1M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Göztepe | HNK Gorica | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 25 Aug 2020 | HNK Gorica | Göztepe | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 21 Jan 2019 | Without Club | HNK Gorica | Unknown | €150k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Waasland-Beveren | Without Club | Unknown | €150k |
| 6 Jan 2017 | Unknown | Waasland-Beveren | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.