Cherif Ndiaye

30 yrs · Striker · Senegal
Samsunspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.6M – €5.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€417k – €1.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.2M – €3.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.2M – €166k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.6M – €5.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€417k – €1.8M
Projected value (24 months)€1.2M – €3.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Cherif Ndiaye's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-5.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1422 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 6

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average33.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.8M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-66% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1422 (47% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.63
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.55
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
34 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1310
Opponent strength
1280
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.2M – €3.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -70% (IQR -79% to -56%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1422 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (ATT)
Relative output kept
79%–133%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
58%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SamsunsporSuper LigST23142246%730.630.55128013100.40
2023/24Adana DemirsporSuper LigST21675%111.080.38114012500.45
2022/23Adana DemirsporSuper LigST1281025%821.110.70133314100.50
2020/21GöztepeSuper LigST39279478%1020.390.49128112000.37
2018/19SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueST1452%000.000.56135712760.65
2017/18SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueST4522%000.000.51129112770.63
2016/17SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueST3512%000.000.71139112530.62

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingRed Star Belgrade5370221458
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsSenegal56420—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueRed Star Belgrade8570211643
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingRed Star Belgrade284001573
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAdana Demirspor6488421439
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueRed Star Belgrade6360101732

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Famara Diédhiou
Super Lig · 2022
30€4.0M€500kfell
Britt Assombalonga
Super Lig · 2022
30€3.4M€1.0Mfell
Fabio Borini
Super Lig · 2022
31€2.5M€2.2Mflat
Ahmed Hassan
Super Lig · 2022
29€3.0M€1.2Mfell
Fernando Andrade
Super Lig · 2020
27€3.2M€1.0Mfell
Serdar Dursun
Super Lig · 2022
31€3.5M€750kfell
Ohi Omoijuanfo
Superliga · 2023
29€2.5M€450kfell
Théo Bongonda
Premier Liga · 2024
29€5.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
12 Sept 2025Red StarSamsunspor€4.0M€5.0M
4 Sept 2023Adana DemirsporRed Star€4.0M€2.2M
1 Jul 2023SH PortAdana Demirspor€600k€2.2M
30 Jun 2023Adana DemirsporSH PortFree / loan€2.2M
28 Jan 2023SH PortAdana DemirsporFree / loan€1.5M
6 Apr 2022GöztepeSH Port€1.2M€2.2M
1 Jul 2021HNK GoricaGöztepe€1.1M€2.0M
30 Jun 2021GöztepeHNK GoricaFree / loan€2.0M
25 Aug 2020HNK GoricaGöztepeFree / loan€1.5M
21 Jan 2019Without ClubHNK GoricaUnknown€150k
31 Aug 2018Waasland-BeverenWithout ClubUnknown€150k
6 Jan 2017UnknownWaasland-BeverenUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Cherif Ndiaye · MoneyballAI