Nathan Rôdes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nathan Rôdes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.54x the positional average in the league (1463 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €234k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1463 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1385
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €210k – €590k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 44 pts; relative output down 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -63% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1463 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 27 | 1463 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1385 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 30 | 2641 | 98% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1385 | 1267 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 6 | 520 | 0 | 0 | 1295 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitaliy Goshkoderya Premier Liga · 2017 | 29 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Catalin Carp Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €900k | €350k | fell |
| Pavlo Ksyonz Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Kwame Quansah Eredivisie · 2014 | 32 | €850k | €850k | flat |
| Kyrylo Kovalchuk Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Ivan Paurevic Premier Liga · 2019 | 28 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Hélder Tavares Liga Portugal · 2019 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Luís Aurélio Liga Portugal · 2018 | 30 | €500k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | RFC Lüttich | FCV Dender EH | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | R Charleroi SC | RFC Lüttich | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Titus Petange | R Charleroi SC | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | R Charleroi SC | Titus Petange | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Charleroi U21 | R Charleroi SC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 9 Jan 2017 | KSC Grimbergen | Charleroi U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 16 Jul 2016 | KVW Zaventem | KSC Grimbergen | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.