Tiago Araújo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tiago Araújo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-4.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.2M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1800 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1356
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 45 pts; relative output up 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -46% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 24 | 1800 | 67% | 1 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 1356 | 1403 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 16 | 579 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1398 | 1422 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | LM | 29 | 2265 | 74% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1378 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | LB | 25 | 868 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 1448 | 1252 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | LB | 15 | 470 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1358 | 1235 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KAA Gent | 10 | 894 | 0 | 0 | 1472 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Appiah Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Wilson Manafá Liga Portugal · 2019 | 25 | €3.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Rafa Soares Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €3.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Sandy Walsh Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €1.4M | €2.0M | rose |
| Hidde ter Avest Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Adrián Marín Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Cédric Yambéré Ligue 1 · 2016 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Kelvin Leerdam Eredivisie · 2014 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2024 | Estoril | KAA Gent | €1.3M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica B | Estoril | €650k | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Arouca | Benfica B | Free / loan | €450k |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Benfica B | Arouca | Free / loan | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2015 | Vitória SC U15 | Benfica U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica U15 | Vitória SC U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.