Ivan Mesik
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Mesik's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €326k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2633 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1060
- Opponent strength
- 1327
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €389k – €797k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-147 Elo); role change CB -> LB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -31% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | LB | 30 | 2633 | 86% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1327 | 1060 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2910 | 95% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1315 | 1207 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 19 | 909 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1326 | 1308 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 2 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1188 | 1329 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 269 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Spartak Trnava | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1356 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahya Nadrani Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €650k | €350k | fell |
| Abdul Rahman Weiss Super League 1 · 2021 | 23 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Okan Erdoğan Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Georgios Kornezos Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Ziggy Gordon Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 26 | €250k | €350k | rose |
| Cammy Kerr Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 27 | €350k | €325k | flat |
| Nicolaj Ritter Superliga · 2015 | 23 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Paul Hanlon Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 24 | €750k | €550k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Pescara | Heracles Almelo | €250k | €200k |
| 5 Jan 2023 | Nordsjaelland | Pescara | €100k | €200k |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Odd | Nordsjaelland | Free / loan | €200k |
| 3 Mar 2022 | Nordsjaelland | Odd | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Dec 2021 | Stabæk | Nordsjaelland | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Nordsjaelland | Stabæk | Free / loan | €700k |
| 28 Jan 2020 | Spartak Trnava | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Trnava U19 | Spartak Trnava | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.