Juan Manuel Boselli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Juan Manuel Boselli's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (1641 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1641 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.68
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €665k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+63 Elo); role change SS -> ST.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -28% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1641 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | ST | 16 | 1328 | 49% | 7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.68 | 1321 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | LW | 12 | 313 | 12% | 1 | 2 | 0.86 | 0.36 | 1296 | 1536 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | SS | 26 | 2004 | 74% | 10 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 1282 | 1181 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | ST | 22 | 1118 | 41% | 3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 1338 | 1164 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 27 | 1243 | 41% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1379 | 1341 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RW | 21 | 854 | 28% | 5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 1374 | 1230 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 4 | 274 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 4 | 203 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 3 | 93 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 2 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Gil Vicente FC | 4 | 174 | 2 | 1 | 1396 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhon Murillo Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Aleksandr Troshechkin Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Jordan Remacle Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Zé Manuel Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Michael Frey Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Souleymane Doukara Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €2.3M | €2.7M | rose |
| Anice Badri Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 26 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Aleksey Kashtanov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €900k | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | Pari NN | Krasnodar | €650k | €1.5M |
| 10 Sept 2023 | Gil Vicente | Pari NN | €200k | €500k |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Tondela | Gil Vicente | €50k | €300k |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Defensor SC | Tondela | Free / loan | €200k |
| 25 Aug 2021 | Cádiz CF B | Defensor SC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Defensor SC | Cádiz CF B | Free / loan | €300k |
| 23 Sept 2020 | Athletico-PR | Defensor SC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 21 Nov 2019 | América-MG | Athletico-PR | Free / loan | €300k |
| 5 Sept 2019 | Athletico-PR | América-MG | Free / loan | €300k |
| 13 Aug 2019 | Defensor SC | Athletico-PR | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | CF Peralada | Defensor SC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 16 Jan 2019 | Defensor SC | CF Peralada | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Defensor SC U19 | Defensor SC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.