Pedro Neto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Neto's performance-implied value at EUR 42.4M-48.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 35.6M-76.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.1M-56.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (2643 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €56.0M vs market €60.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2643 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1590
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.1M – €56.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -54% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RW | 34 | 2643 | 77% | 5 | 6 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 1590 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RW | 35 | 2269 | 66% | 4 | 6 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 1578 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RW | 20 | 1519 | 44% | 2 | 9 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 1591 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RW | 18 | 970 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.30 | 1558 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RW | 13 | 464 | 14% | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 1584 | 1508 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LW | 31 | 2560 | 75% | 5 | 6 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 1569 | 1516 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RW | 29 | 927 | 27% | 3 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 1617 | 1613 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 4 | 43 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1408 | 1467 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RW | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 1658 | 1537 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RW | 2 | 47 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.91 | 0.33 | 1214 | 1386 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 8 | 614 | 0 | 1 | 1696 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 346 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 3 | 206 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Chelsea FC | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1465 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 210 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 133 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 8 | 329 | 1 | 1 | 1490 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 94 | 1 | 1 | 1355 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €65.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Dejan Kulusevski Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €55.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €50.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Lucas Moura Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €32.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Willian Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €32.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| Juan Mata Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €34.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Romelu Lukaku Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €75.0M | €100M | rose |
| Bernard Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2024 | Wolves | Chelsea | €60.0M | €55.0M |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Lazio | Wolves | €17.9M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Braga | Lazio | €11.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Lazio | Braga | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Braga | Lazio | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Braga U17 | Braga | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Palmeiras U17 | Braga U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2015 | Braga U15 | Palmeiras U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | PEJ - AD | Braga U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Vianense For. | PEJ - AD | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.