Lucas Paquetá

The model rates Lucas Paquetá's performance-implied value at EUR 13.0M-28.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.2M-33.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.7M-18.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1522 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1522 (45% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.30

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.44

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1520

Opponent strength

1605

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€9.7M – €18.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; relative output up 94% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -73% to -15%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1522 league minutes last season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.