Jan Zamburek

25 yrs · Central midfielder · Czech Republic
Heracles Almelo · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 182 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€400k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€139k – €459k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€265k – €521k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€269k – €481k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€194k – €381k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€139k – €459k
Model value (performance-implied)€265k – €521k
Projected value (24 months)€269k – €481k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jan Zamburek's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (1735 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 90

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average3.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €244k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationNeutral-3% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1735 (57% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
4 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1060
Opponent strength
1323
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€269k – €481k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; team strength down (-147 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -26% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1735 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (MID)
Relative output kept
76%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCM26173557%010.050.13132310600.43
2024/25Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCM2093431%010.100.19134412070.50
2023/24Viborg FFSuperligaCM31005%000.000.20128812610.48
2022/23Viborg FFSuperligaCM1452326%110.340.30130013270.47
2021/22Viborg FFSuperligaCM5583%000.000.28134912340.45

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo326700—
2024/25Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo431501—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingViborg FF6424011347
2022/23Oddset PokalenViborg FF319101—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Oleksandr Snizhko
Premier Liga · 2021
25€300k€175kfell
Klodian Gjino
Super League 1 · 2019
25€250k€200kfell
James Brown
Scottish Premiership · 2023
25€325k€325kflat
Giannis Ikonomidis
Super League 1 · 2020
22€300k€300kflat
Mateo Stamatov
Premier Liga · 2024
25€700k€700kflat
Yalçın Kayan
Super Lig · 2022
23€650k€1.1Mrose
Loreintz Rosier
Eredivisie · 2024
26€900k€900kflat
Andreas Lampropoulos
Super League 1 · 2015
27€500k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Jul 2024Viborg FFHeracles Almelo€402k€600k
30 Jun 2024Slovan LiberecViborg FFFree / loan€600k
1 Sept 2023Viborg FFSlovan LiberecFree / loan€500k
12 Jan 2022BrentfordViborg FFUnknown€800k
11 Jan 2021ShrewsburyBrentfordFree / loan€800k
5 Oct 2020BrentfordShrewsburyFree / loan€800k
30 Aug 2019Brentford BBrentfordUnknown€50k
9 Aug 2018Slavia U19Brentford BUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2017Slavia U17Slavia U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Slavia Yth.Slavia U17UnknownData unavailable
30 Jul 2015Bohemians Yth.Slavia Yth.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Jan Zamburek · MoneyballAI