Yalçın Kayan

27 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM, LM) · Türkiye
Eyüpspor · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€385k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€414k – €630k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€494k – €1.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€886k – €246k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€385k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€414k – €630k
Projected value (24 months)€494k – €1.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Yalçın Kayan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1720 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 66

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average17th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €663k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationLow-23% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.3M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1720 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.26
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.23
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
17 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1255
Opponent strength
1297
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€494k – €1.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; relative output up 79% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -36% to +6%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1720 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26EyüpsporSuper LigCM1688429%020.200.23129712040.40
2025/26SamsunsporSuper LigCM1483627%030.320.24125013100.40
2024/25EyüpsporSuper LigCM17113935%010.080.12128912290.39
2024/25GöztepeSuper LigCM1642%000.000.23124412010.39
2021/22GöztepeSuper LigCM29148043%000.000.11125310970.42
2020/21GöztepeSuper LigDM1895727%200.190.16125912000.37
2019/20GöztepeSuper LigCM1234911%000.000.15132912330.45
2018/19GöztepeSuper LigLM280%000.000.17131912990.58

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mickaël Tirpan
Super Lig · 2021
28€1.0M€650kfell
Stijn De Smet
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
29€800k€1.2Mrose
Arnaud Lusamba
Super Lig · 2024
27€1.2M€800kfell
Olivier Kemen
Super Lig · 2023
27€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Adrián Riera
Super League 1 · 2021
25€500k€500kflat
Ramzi Safuri
Super Lig · 2024
29€1.6M€900kfell
Manolis Papasterianos
Super League 1 · 2015
28€500k€300kfell
José María Cases
Super League 1 · 2015
29€600k€500kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Jan 2026EyüpsporSamsunspor€600k€700k
13 Jan 2025GöztepeEyüpspor€160k€650k
1 Jul 2018Göztepe U21GöztepeUnknownData unavailable
16 Mar 2017Göztepe YthGöztepe U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Sept 2016Karsiyaka YthGöztepe YthFree / loanData unavailable
11 Feb 2014Altinordu YthKarsiyaka YthFree / loanData unavailable
20 Sept 2013Altay SK YthAltinordu YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.