
Yalçın Kayan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yalçın Kayan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1720 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €663k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1720 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1297
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €494k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; relative output up 79% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -36% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1720 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CM | 16 | 884 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 1297 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CM | 14 | 836 | 27% | 0 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 1250 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CM | 17 | 1139 | 35% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1289 | 1229 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | Göztepe | Super Lig | CM | 1 | 64 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1244 | 1201 | 0.39 |
| 2021/22 | Göztepe | Super Lig | CM | 29 | 1480 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1253 | 1097 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Göztepe | Super Lig | DM | 18 | 957 | 27% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1259 | 1200 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Göztepe | Super Lig | CM | 12 | 349 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1329 | 1233 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Göztepe | Super Lig | LM | 2 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1319 | 1299 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickaël Tirpan Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Stijn De Smet Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Arnaud Lusamba Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Olivier Kemen Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Adrián Riera Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Ramzi Safuri Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.6M | €900k | fell |
| Manolis Papasterianos Super League 1 · 2015 | 28 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| José María Cases Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €600k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2026 | Eyüpspor | Samsunspor | €600k | €700k |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Göztepe | Eyüpspor | €160k | €650k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Göztepe U21 | Göztepe | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 16 Mar 2017 | Göztepe Yth | Göztepe U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2016 | Karsiyaka Yth | Göztepe Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Feb 2014 | Altinordu Yth | Karsiyaka Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Sept 2013 | Altay SK Yth | Altinordu Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.