Roberto Fernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roberto Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-4.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.0M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 43.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 841 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1327
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -44% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 841 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 12 | 841 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1327 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 20 | 1631 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1291 | 1445 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1980 | 73% | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1331 | 1374 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 1564 | 58% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1323 | 1325 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 8 | 535 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 7 | 477 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 10 | 761 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidde ter Avest Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €1.3M | €1.5M | flat |
| Tin Jedvaj Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.7M | flat |
| Willy Boly Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €3.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Luca Marrone Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 27 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Aleksandr Zuev Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Ilya Kutepov Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Marco Torsiglieri Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Egor Sorokin Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2022 | Guaraní | Dynamo Moscow | €3.0M | €1.3M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Guaraní U20 | Guaraní | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.