Aurélien Scheidler
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aurélien Scheidler's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (2582 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2582 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1386
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €732k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 40 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -48% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 26 | 2246 | 83% | 7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 1386 | 1307 | 0.65 |
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 4 | 336 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1367 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 21 | 1504 | 56% | 6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 1398 | 1267 | 0.63 |
| 2020/21 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | ST | 10 | 338 | 10% | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.59 | 1460 | 1211 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | 10 | 685 | 2 | 2 | 1372 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro Liga Portugal · 2015 | 29 | €1.9M | €1.0M | fell |
| Chisamba Lungu Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €2.5M | €600k | fell |
| Youness Mokhtar Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Deniz Kadah Super Lig · 2016 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Danilo Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Maicón Super Lig · 2018 | 28 | €2.8M | €1.6M | fell |
| Wilfried Kanga Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Efecan Karaca Super Lig · 2018 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.4M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2025 | FCV Dender EH | R Charleroi SC | €1.5M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Bari | FCV Dender EH | €800k | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | FCV Dender EH | Bari | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 5 Aug 2024 | Bari | FCV Dender EH | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Andorra | Bari | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Bari | FC Andorra | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Dijon | Bari | €2.0M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | AS Nancy | Dijon | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 19 Jan 2021 | Dijon | AS Nancy | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | US Orléans | Dijon | Free / loan | €725k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Dijon | US Orléans | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jan 2020 | US Orléans | Dijon | €1.0M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | US Orléans B | US Orléans | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Boulogne B | US Orléans B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Amiens SC B | Boulogne B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Boulogne B | Amiens SC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.