Leo Kokubo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leo Kokubo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-4.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-8.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2700 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1401
- Opponent strength
- 1379
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €8.2M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+99 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -34% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1379 | 1401 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 27 | 2430 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1378 | 1302 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Sint-Truidense VV | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1491 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Bodart Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Hendrik Van Crombrugge Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 27 | €5.5M | €5.5M | flat |
| Esteban Alvarado Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kristoffer Nordfeldt Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Gaëtan Coucke Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Piet Velthuizen Eredivisie · 2014 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sergio Padt Eredivisie · 2016 | 26 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Thomas Kaminski Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2024 | Benfica | Sint-Truiden | Unknown | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | €50k |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Reysol U18 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Apr 2016 | Reysol Jg | Reysol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.