
Kirill Shchetinin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kirill Shchetinin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (2144 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2144 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1345
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -71% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 29 | 2144 | 79% | 2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 1345 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 28 | 1532 | 57% | 1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 1287 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 25 | 1691 | 63% | 4 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 1340 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 30 | 1725 | 64% | 1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1323 | 1343 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 12 | 721 | 27% | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 1326 | 1283 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 7 | 301 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 12 | 800 | 0 | 4 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 7 | 409 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 8 | 389 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koray Altinay Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €3.0M | €400k | fell |
| Abdul Khalili Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €1.7M | €550k | fell |
| Omar Govea Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Tommy Oar Eredivisie · 2014 | 23 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Simon Tibbling Eredivisie · 2016 | 22 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Ryan Thomas Eredivisie · 2018 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Lucas Fernandes Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €1.7M | €2.0M | flat |
| Gabriel Florentín Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €2.3M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Rostov | €250k | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Rostov | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Free / loan | €750k |
| 26 Jul 2021 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Rostov | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Zenit II | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Unknown | €175k |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Loko Moscow II | Zenit II | €280k | €100k |
| 29 Aug 2018 | Ak. Loko U17 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ak.Loko U16 | Ak. Loko U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Loko M. Youth | Ak.Loko U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Oct 2016 | A. Kursk Youth | Loko M. Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.