Kirill Shchetinin

24 yrs · Attacking midfielder · Russia
FK Rostov · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€2.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.1M – €3.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€770k – €2.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.2M – €3.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.4M – €1.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.1M – €3.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€770k – €2.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.2M – €3.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kirill Shchetinin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (2144 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 62

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average31.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.9M vs market €2.8M
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2144 (79% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.21
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.27
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
32 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1301
Opponent strength
1345
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.2M – €3.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -71% to -3%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
18 (MID)
Relative output kept
54%–153%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
56%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK RostovPremier LigaAM29214479%230.210.27134513010.56
2024/25FK RostovPremier LigaAM28153257%130.230.27128713420.55
2023/24FK RostovPremier LigaAM25169163%430.370.40134013170.49
2022/23FK RostovPremier LigaAM30172564%140.260.24132313430.53
2021/22FK RostovPremier LigaAM1272127%210.370.40132612830.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFK Rostov730100—
2024/25Russian CupFK Rostov1280004—
2023/24Russian CupFK Rostov740900—
2022/23Russian CupFK Rostov838912—
2021/22Russian CupFK Rostov19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Koray Altinay
Super Lig · 2016
25€3.0M€400kfell
Abdul Khalili
Super Lig · 2017
25€1.7M€550kfell
Omar Govea
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
25€1.8M€700kfell
Tommy Oar
Eredivisie · 2014
23€1.5M€2.0Mrose
Simon Tibbling
Eredivisie · 2016
22€2.8M€2.5Mflat
Ryan Thomas
Eredivisie · 2018
24€3.0M€2.4Mfell
Lucas Fernandes
Liga Portugal · 2020
23€1.7M€2.0Mflat
Gabriel Florentín
Premier Liga · 2024
25€2.3M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022Zenit 2 S-PbRostov€250k€750k
30 Jun 2022RostovZenit 2 S-PbFree / loan€750k
26 Jul 2021Zenit 2 S-PbRostovFree / loan€175k
1 Jul 2021Zenit IIZenit 2 S-PbUnknown€175k
30 Aug 2019Loko Moscow IIZenit II€280k€100k
29 Aug 2018Ak. Loko U17Loko Moscow IIUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2018Ak.Loko U16Ak. Loko U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Loko M. YouthAk.Loko U16UnknownData unavailable
12 Oct 2016A. Kursk YouthLoko M. YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.