Louis Patris

25 yrs · Right-back (also CB) · Belgium
Union Saint-Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.3M – €3.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €3.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.1M – €4.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.2M – €2.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.3M – €3.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €3.8M
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €4.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Louis Patris's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 56

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage51.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.1 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €2.2M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationNeutral-7% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.3M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1376 (51% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.20
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
51 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1506
Opponent strength
1353
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.1M – €4.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+204 Elo); relative output down 63% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -40% to +59%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1376 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
76 (DEF)
Relative output kept
67%–160%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueRB2285732%010.110.07135315700.65
2025/26Sint-Truidense VVJupiler Pro LeagueRB651919%020.350.17130414010.65
2024/25Sint-Truidense VVJupiler Pro LeagueRB23167662%050.270.27139013020.63
2024/25RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueRB110%000.000.13149814760.63
2023/24RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueRB1593134%100.100.08139515160.63
2022/23Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueRB33278691%280.320.22131113380.58
2021/22Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueCB647415%010.190.12134112460.49
2020/21Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueCB21806%000.000.06137812680.55

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise5145001696
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Playoff IUnion Saint-Gilloise663001374

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tomasz Kędziora
Premier Liga · 2018
24€2.0M€2.8Mrose
Marvin Zeegelaar
Liga Portugal · 2017
27€3.5M€2.5Mfell
Pablo Santos
Liga Portugal · 2019
27€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Laurens De Bock
Jupiler Pro League · 2017
25€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Jason Denayer
Super Lig · 2018
23€3.0M€12.0Mrose
Dmitriy Zhivoglyadov
Premier Liga · 2020
26€2.2M€2.0Mflat
Jere Uronen
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
24€1.2M€2.8Mrose
Aleksandar Pantic
Premier Liga · 2017
25€2.0M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Sept 2025Sint-TruidenUnion SG€3.8M€2.0M
1 Jul 2025RSC AnderlechtSint-Truiden€1.8M€2.0M
30 Jun 2025Sint-TruidenRSC AnderlechtFree / loan€2.0M
4 Sept 2024RSC AnderlechtSint-TruidenFree / loan€2.0M
8 Jul 2023OH LeuvenRSC Anderlecht€3.5M€3.0M
1 Jan 2021OH Leuven U21OH LeuvenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2019OH Leuven U18OH Leuven U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018OH Leuven U17OH Leuven U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017OH Leuven Yth.OH Leuven U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Standard YthOH Leuven Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Louis Patris · MoneyballAI