
Louis Patris
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Louis Patris's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.2M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1376 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1353
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+204 Elo); relative output down 63% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -40% to +59%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1376 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 22 | 857 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1353 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2025/26 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 6 | 519 | 19% | 0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 1304 | 1401 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 23 | 1676 | 62% | 0 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 1390 | 1302 | 0.63 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1498 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 15 | 931 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1395 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 33 | 2786 | 91% | 2 | 8 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 1311 | 1338 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 6 | 474 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1341 | 1246 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1378 | 1268 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 1696 |
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1374 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomasz Kędziora Premier Liga · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.8M | rose |
| Marvin Zeegelaar Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Pablo Santos Liga Portugal · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Laurens De Bock Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jason Denayer Super Lig · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Dmitriy Zhivoglyadov Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Jere Uronen Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €1.2M | €2.8M | rose |
| Aleksandar Pantic Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sept 2025 | Sint-Truiden | Union SG | €3.8M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | RSC Anderlecht | Sint-Truiden | €1.8M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Sint-Truiden | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 4 Sept 2024 | RSC Anderlecht | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 8 Jul 2023 | OH Leuven | RSC Anderlecht | €3.5M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | OH Leuven U21 | OH Leuven | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | OH Leuven U18 | OH Leuven U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | OH Leuven U17 | OH Leuven U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | OH Leuven Yth. | OH Leuven U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Standard Yth | OH Leuven Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.