Iva Gelashvili

25 yrs · Centre-back · Georgia
Panserraikos Serres · Super League 1 · Foot: both · Height: 192 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€500k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€159k – €532k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€250k – €642k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€330k – €735k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€282k – €483k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€159k – €532k
Model value (performance-implied)€250k – €642k
Projected value (24 months)€330k – €735k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Iva Gelashvili's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 98

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average4.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €213k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationNeutral+0% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €550k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1416 (61% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
5 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1104
Opponent strength
1285
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€330k – €735k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -51% to +3%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1416 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Panserraikos SerresSuper League 1CB20141661%100.060.12128511040.43

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingIberia 1999 Tbilisi190001318

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Yuriy Romanyuk
Premier Liga · 2023
26€400k€150kfell
Christos Sielis
Super League 1 · 2024
24€700k€700kflat
Ertuğrul Ersoy
Super Lig · 2023
26€750k€200kfell
Nikolaos Golias
Super League 1 · 2017
24€350k€400kflat
Sören Reese
Superliga · 2019
26€400k€400kflat
Jordan Marshall
Scottish Premiership · 2022
26€325k€300kflat
Joey Jacobs
Eredivisie · 2024
24€650k€350kfell
Valeriy Dubko
Premier Liga · 2024
23€350k€500krose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
15 Jul 2025Iberia 1999PanserraikosFree / loan€550k
10 Sept 2024Dinamo BatumiIberia 1999Free / loan€450k
30 Jun 2024Spezia CalcioDinamo BatumiFree / loan€450k
23 Aug 2023Dinamo BatumiSpezia CalcioFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2023SaburtaloDinamo BatumiFree / loan€250k
1 Jan 2023Dinamo BatumiSaburtaloFree / loan€200k
31 Dec 2022Sioni BolnisiDinamo BatumiFree / loan€200k
1 Aug 2022Dinamo BatumiSioni BolnisiFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2022Sparta Prague BDinamo BatumiFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2020Sparta U19Sparta Prague BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Sparta U17Sparta U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Sparta Yth.Sparta U17UnknownData unavailable
7 Aug 2015Bohemians Yth.Sparta Yth.UnknownData unavailable
6 Oct 2011ABC Branik Yth.Bohemians Yth.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.