Valeriy Dubko

25 yrs · Centre-back · Ukraine
TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 Dec 2028
Market value
€500k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€195k – €545k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€362k – €795k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€262k – €656k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€183k – €600k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€195k – €545k
Model value (performance-implied)€362k – €795k
Projected value (24 months)€262k – €656k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Valeriy Dubko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 77

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average9.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €351k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationNeutral-8% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €500k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1695 (63% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
10 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1094
Opponent strength
1179
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€262k – €656k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; relative output down 45% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -43% to +9%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1695 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Obolon KyivPremier LigaCB15135050%000.000.03117910700.25
2025/26TOV FK Metalist 1925 KharkivPremier LigaCB534513%000.000.04104411860.25
2024/25Obolon KyivPremier LigaCB26231286%100.040.06121510980.28
2023/24Obolon KyivPremier LigaCB21161860%020.110.13127110780.34
2021/22Chornomorets OdesaPremier LigaCB18141787%000.000.04129611560.45
2020/21Vorskla PoltavaPremier LigaCB2171%000.000.11145012910.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupObolon Kyiv19000—
2024/25Ukrainian CupObolon Kyiv224000—
2023/24Ukrainian CupObolon Kyiv213500—
2021/22Ukrainian CupChornomorets Odesa216000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Liam Gordon
Scottish Premiership · 2024
28€500k€250kfell
Ryan Leak
Scottish Premiership · 2024
26€300k€175kfell
Pavlo Lukyanchuk
Premier Liga · 2024
28€350k€200kfell
Connor Randall
Scottish Premiership · 2023
28€450k€250kfell
Salvador Sánchez
Super League 1 · 2021
26€350k€350kflat
Volodymyr Salyuk
Premier Liga · 2024
22€700k€1.0Mrose
Jeppe Brinch
Superliga · 2020
25€325k€200kfell
Adam Tzanetopoulos
Super League 1 · 2022
27€250k€400krose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
28 Jan 2026ObolonMetalist 1925Free / loan€500k
31 Jan 2024FCV Dender EHObolonFree / loan€250k
30 Jan 2024ObolonFCV Dender EHFree / loan€250k
1 Sept 2023FCV Dender EHObolonFree / loan€150k
17 Aug 2022Zorya LuganskFCV Dender EHFree / loan€300k
4 Feb 2022Vorskla PoltavaZorya Lugansk€100k€300k
30 Jan 2022ChornomoretsVorskla PoltavaFree / loan€300k
24 Jul 2021Vorskla PoltavaChornomoretsFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2021Vorskla IIVorskla PoltavaUnknown€50k
1 Jan 2019Vorskla U19Vorskla IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Arsenal K. U17Vorskla U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.