Neraysho Kasanwirjo

24 yrs · Centre-back (also RB) · Netherlands
Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€518k – €1.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€526k – €1.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€746k – €2.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€841k – €535k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€518k – €1.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€526k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€746k – €2.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Neraysho Kasanwirjo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 95

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average18th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €690k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationLow-10% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1320 (43% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
18 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1175
Opponent strength
1318
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€746k – €2.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -50% to -13%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1320 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieCB16132043%020.140.13131811750.43
2024/25Rangers FCScottish PremiershipCB62348%000.000.03121314630.34
2024/25Feyenoord RotterdamEredivisieCB21124%000.000.03120715650.50
2022/23FC GroningenEredivisieRB15123040%010.070.11137411460.58
2022/23Feyenoord RotterdamEredivisieRB51405%000.000.05128916390.58
2021/22FC GroningenEredivisieCB32273289%100.030.04133612700.60

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueRangers FC4173001481
2022/23Knvb BekerFC Groningen213520—
2022/23Knvb BekerFeyenoord Rotterdam24500—
2021/22Knvb BekerFC Groningen329100—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Samuel Inkoom
Super League 1 · 2014
25€1.5M€800kfell
Miguel Rodrigues
Super League 1 · 2017
24€600k€350kfell
Rami Gershon
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
26€900k€1.8Mrose
Giannis Masouras
Super League 1 · 2020
24€600k€450kfell
Mert Çetin
Super Lig · 2022
25€1.7M€700kfell
Viktor Aleksandrov
Premier Liga · 2023
21€900k€1.2Mrose
Viktor Korniyenko
Premier Liga · 2024
25€1.0M€300kfell
Karol Fila
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
25€900k€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Fortuna SittardFeyenoordFree / loan€1.5M
6 Jan 2026FeyenoordFortuna SittardFree / loan€1.5M
31 Dec 2025Molde FKFeyenoordFree / loan€1.5M
2 Sept 2025FeyenoordMolde FKFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jun 2025RangersFeyenoordFree / loan€1.8M
30 Aug 2024FeyenoordRangersFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jun 2024Rapid ViennaFeyenoordFree / loan€1.8M
1 Sept 2023FeyenoordRapid ViennaFree / loan€2.5M
23 Jan 2023FC GroningenFeyenoord€2.0M€2.5M
1 Jul 2021Ajax U21FC GroningenFree / loan€350k
1 Jul 2020Ajax U19Ajax U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Ajax U17Ajax U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Zeeburgia Yth.Ajax YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Neraysho Kasanwirjo · MoneyballAI