Viktor Aleksandrov

24 yrs · Centre-back · Russia
FK Nizhny Novgorod · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€900k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€368k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€463k – €856k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€447k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€605k – €489k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€368k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€463k – €856k
Projected value (24 months)€447k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Viktor Aleksandrov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 67

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average10.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €672k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationLow-12% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1332 (49% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
10 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1176
Opponent strength
1375
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€447k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 33% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -52% to -14%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1332 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK Nizhny NovgorodPremier LigaCB19133249%000.000.05137511760.56
2024/25FK Nizhny NovgorodPremier LigaCB21156958%000.000.03131711810.55
2023/24FK Nizhny NovgorodPremier LigaCB24206877%110.090.09134211640.49
2022/23FK Nizhny NovgorodPremier LigaCB17127847%200.140.12132512260.53
2021/22FK Nizhny NovgorodPremier LigaCB31837%000.000.07135412600.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFK Nizhny Novgorod652700—
2024/25Russian CupFK Nizhny Novgorod434900—
2023/24Russian CupFK Nizhny Novgorod545010—
2022/23Russian CupFK Nizhny Novgorod872030—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingValmiera FC190001311
2021/22Russian CupFK Nizhny Novgorod19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Iago Santos
Liga Portugal · 2016
24€750k€700kflat
Nikolay Rasskazov
Premier Liga · 2021
23€1.5M€600kfell
Leon Guwara
Eredivisie · 2021
25€600k€500kflat
Naomichi Ueda
Jupiler Pro League · 2019
25€1.0M€800kfell
Ibrahim Ayew
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
25€500k€250kfell
Aleksandr Filin
Premier Liga · 2023
27€800k€1.0Mrose
Gal Shish
Premier Liga · 2014
25€700k€300kfell
Yevgen Martynenko
Premier Liga · 2018
25€600k€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jan 2023Rubin KazanPari NN€320k€600k
31 Dec 2022Pari NNRubin KazanFree / loan€600k
15 Feb 2022Rubin KazanNizhny NovgorodFree / loan€200k
1 Jan 2022Rubin Kazan IIRubin KazanUnknown€200k
31 Dec 2021ValmieraRubin Kazan IIFree / loan€200k
28 Jan 2021Rubin Kazan IIValmieraFree / loan€150k
16 May 2019Akademia RubinRubin Kazan IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Viktor Aleksandrov · MoneyballAI