Dominic Thompson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dominic Thompson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €234k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2243 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1227
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €211k – €497k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 52 pts; changed club; role change LM -> LB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -35% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 32 | 2243 | 76% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1227 | 1104 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 10 | 703 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1256 | 1121 | 0.34 |
| 2021/22 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LM | 2 | 148 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1698 | 1483 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Blackpool FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Provydakis Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Luka Gucek Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Epaminondas Pantelakis Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Adam Tzanetopoulos Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Konstantinos Balogiannis Super League 1 · 2022 | 23 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Jack MacKenzie Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €400k | €800k | rose |
| Murat Paluli Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Pierre-Yves Polomat Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €500k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2025 | Motherwell FC | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Blackpool | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 May 2024 | Forest Green | Blackpool | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Blackpool | Forest Green | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 25 Jul 2022 | Brentford | Blackpool | Unknown | €800k |
| 31 May 2022 | Ipswich | Brentford | Free / loan | €800k |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Brentford | Ipswich | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 May 2021 | Swindon Town | Brentford | Free / loan | €400k |
| 4 Jan 2021 | Brentford | Swindon Town | Free / loan | €400k |
| 8 Aug 2019 | Arsenal U23 | Brentford | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Arsenal Youth | Arsenal U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.