
Albert Grønbaek
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Albert Grønbaek's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-5.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.73x the positional average in the league (596 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 46th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 596 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1384
- Opponent strength
- 1529
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change AM -> LM; relative output up 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -68% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 596 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | LM | 7 | 495 | 16% | 1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 1529 | 1380 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | LW | 4 | 101 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1404 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | AM | 16 | 813 | 27% | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 1441 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Southampton FC | Premier League | AM | 4 | 143 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1596 | 1277 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 4 | 114 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1242 | 1331 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 22 | 1385 | 70% | 2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 1253 | 1303 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1164 | 59% | 3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 1299 | 1335 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 1 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 1 | 4.74 | 0.30 | 1305 | 1317 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt | 6 | 374 | 1 | 1 | 1610 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt | 2 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 6 | 417 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1303 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdelhamid Sabiri Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Andrea Colpani Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €9.5M | rose |
| Alberto Grassi Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €5.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mohamed Fares Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Jean-Eudes Aholou Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Christian Oliva Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Thierry Doubai Ligue 1 · 2013 | 25 | €2.5M | €750k | fell |
| Federico Dimarco Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €4.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Stade Rennais | Hamburg | €4.7M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Hamburg | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Stade Rennais | Hamburg | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Genoa | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Stade Rennais | Genoa | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Southampton | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 21 Jan 2025 | Stade Rennais | Southampton | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 15 Jul 2024 | Bodø/Glimt | Stade Rennais | €15.0M | €12.0M |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Aarhus GF | Bodø/Glimt | €4.8M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Aarhus GF U19 | Aarhus GF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Aarhus GF Youth | Aarhus GF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.