Albert Grønbaek

25 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM, LM, LW) · Denmark
Hamburger SV · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.5M – €7.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.3M – €5.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.8M – €5.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.9M – €2.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.5M – €7.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.3M – €5.3M
Projected value (24 months)€1.8M – €5.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Albert Grønbaek's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-5.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.73x the positional average in the league (596 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage46th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.1 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €4.3M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-35% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
596 (17% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.45
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.43
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
46 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1384
Opponent strength
1529
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.8M – €5.6M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change AM -> LM; relative output up 68% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -68% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Small sample: 596 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Hamburger SVBundesligaLM749516%120.550.43152913800.94
2025/26Genoa CFCSerie ALW41013%000.000.36140414060.93
2024/25Stade Rennais FCLigue 1AM1681327%210.330.38144114500.88
2024/25Southampton FCPremier LeagueAM41434%000.000.57159612771.23
2022/23Aarhus GFSuperligaCM41146%000.000.20124213310.47
2021/22Aarhus GFSuperligaCM22138570%230.320.27125313030.45
2020/21Aarhus GFSuperligaCM21116459%320.390.26129913350.43
2019/20Aarhus GFSuperligaCM1191%014.740.30130513170.41

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupGenoa CFC212500—
2024/25Fa CupSouthampton FC1400—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFotballklubben Bodø/Glimt6374111610
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingFotballklubben Bodø/Glimt265101623
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingAarhus GF2180001397
2021/22Oddset PokalenAarhus GF16600—
2020/21Oddset PokalenAarhus GF641701—
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingAarhus GF114001303
2019/20Oddset PokalenAarhus GF1900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Abdelhamid Sabiri
Serie A · 2022
26€3.0M€2.2Mfell
Andrea Colpani
Serie A · 2023
24€4.0M€9.5Mrose
Alberto Grassi
Serie A · 2020
25€5.5M€2.5Mfell
Mohamed Fares
Serie A · 2022
26€4.0M€1.3Mfell
Jean-Eudes Aholou
Ligue 1 · 2020
26€4.0M€3.0Mfell
Christian Oliva
Serie A · 2021
25€4.0M€1.0Mfell
Thierry Doubai
Ligue 1 · 2013
25€2.5M€750kfell
Federico Dimarco
Serie A · 2020
23€4.0M€18.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Stade RennaisHamburg€4.7M€5.0M
30 Jun 2026HamburgStade RennaisFree / loan€5.0M
31 Jan 2026Stade RennaisHamburgFree / loan€8.0M
30 Jan 2026GenoaStade RennaisFree / loan€8.0M
1 Jul 2025Stade RennaisGenoaFree / loan€11.0M
30 Jun 2025SouthamptonStade RennaisFree / loan€11.0M
21 Jan 2025Stade RennaisSouthamptonFree / loan€15.0M
15 Jul 2024Bodø/GlimtStade Rennais€15.0M€12.0M
15 Aug 2022Aarhus GFBodø/Glimt€4.8M€1.5M
1 Jul 2020Aarhus GF U19Aarhus GFUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Aarhus GF YouthAarhus GF U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.