Joe Hodge
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joe Hodge's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1423 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €515k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1423 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €435k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -19% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1423 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CM | 26 | 1423 | 47% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 1319 | 1194 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | DM | 6 | 173 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1559 | 1497 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Fatau Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Mykyta Tatarkov Premier Liga · 2019 | 24 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Ramon Pascal Lundqvist Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €600k | €750k | rose |
| Cem Özdemir Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Floriano Vanzo Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 22 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Görkem Sağlam Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €600k | €850k | rose |
| Amadou Keita Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 23 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Lassana Coulibaly Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €950k | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2025 | Wolves | Tondela | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 May 2025 | Huddersfield | Wolves | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Wolves | Huddersfield | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 May 2024 | QPR | Wolves | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Wolves | QPR | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Wolves U21 | Wolves | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Man City U23 | Wolves U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2021 | Derry City | Man City U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Feb 2021 | Man City U23 | Derry City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Man City U18 | Man City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.