Rafael Brito
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rafael Brito's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.76x the positional average in the league (1520 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €407k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1520 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €378k – €845k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output up 75% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR +0% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1520 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | DM | 25 | 1520 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 1324 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | DM | 22 | 1008 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1353 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | DM | 9 | 343 | 11% | 0 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.28 | 1349 | 1282 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | DM | 13 | 635 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1385 | 1224 | 0.68 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gudmundur Thórarinsson Superliga · 2016 | 24 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Richard Neudecker Eredivisie · 2020 | 24 | €475k | €400k | flat |
| João Afonso Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Artem Polyarus Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Wilson Kamavuaka Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €700k | €750k | flat |
| Mateusz Klich Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €750k | €800k | flat |
| Alasana Manneh Superliga · 2023 | 25 | €500k | €650k | rose |
| Mark O'Hara Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 26 | €600k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Benfica B | Casa Pia | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Marítimo | Benfica B | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica B | Marítimo | Free / loan | €850k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.