Fredrik Hammar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fredrik Hammar's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (2488 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.8M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2488 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1370
- Opponent strength
- 1359
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 63 pts; relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -51% to +73%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 28 | 2488 | 92% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1359 | 1370 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 10 | 787 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1367 | 1350 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KV Mechelen | 10 | 878 | 0 | 0 | 1480 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmytro Khomchenovskyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Michel Vlap Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Rodrigo Battaglia Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €3.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Kanya Fujimoto Liga Portugal · 2022 | 23 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Furkan Özcal Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €2.2M | €200k | fell |
| Alhassan Wakaso Liga Portugal · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 25 | €4.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Eric-Junior Bocat Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 25 | €2.2M | €2.2M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | Hammarby | KV Mechelen | €1.0M | €750k |
| 30 Nov 2022 | Hammarby TFF | Hammarby | Free / loan | €125k |
| 30 Jan 2022 | Hammarby | Hammarby TFF | Free / loan | €125k |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Akropolis IF | Hammarby | Free / loan | €125k |
| 25 Jan 2021 | Brentford B | Akropolis IF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Akropolis IF | Brentford B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Aug 2018 | IF Bromma U19 | Akropolis IF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | IF Bromma U17 | IF Bromma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.