Sergio Camello
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergio Camello's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-13.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (818 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 66.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 818 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.66
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.52
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1445
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -55% to +79%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 818 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | ST | 22 | 818 | 24% | 5 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 1445 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | ST | 23 | 1139 | 33% | 3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.52 | 1489 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | ST | 30 | 1646 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.42 | 1501 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | ST | 38 | 2413 | 71% | 6 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.54 | 1508 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2019/20 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | ST | 2 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1697 | 1759 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Levante UD | Laliga | ST | 1 | 45 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 2.00 | 0.95 | 1742 | 1495 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 194 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1286 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 100 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 195 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1434 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Schipplock Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Chang-hoon Kwon Bundesliga · 2020 | 26 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Marcos André Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dwight Gayle Premier League · 2015 | 26 | €4.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Nemanja Radonjic Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Alexander Esswein Bundesliga · 2015 | 25 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Raúl Bobadilla Bundesliga · 2014 | 27 | €2.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Sergey Tkachev Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2023 | Atlético | Rayo Vallecano | €5.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Rayo Vallecano | Atlético | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Atlético | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | CD Mirandés | Atlético | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Atlético | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Atl. Madrileño | Atlético | Unknown | €2.3M |
| 25 Mar 2019 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Atl.Madleño U18 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Atl. Madrid U17 | Atl.Madleño U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.