Vasyl Kurko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vasyl Kurko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €122k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 922 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1070
- Opponent strength
- 1164
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €121k – €359k
Trajectory drivers: role change DM -> CB; relative output up 90% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -38% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 922 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | CB | 11 | 922 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1164 | 1070 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | DM | 21 | 1089 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1185 | 1098 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | NK Veres Rivne | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 1980 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1263 | 1152 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | NK Veres Rivne | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 1768 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1272 | 1211 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Obolon Kyiv | 2 | 220 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | NK Veres Rivne | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Keltjens Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Yevgeniy Morozko Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Nikolay Zolotov Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Stavros Panagiotou Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Dimitrios Konstantinidis Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Yuriy Kravchuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Georgios Saramantas Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €250k | €175k | fell |
| Ángel Martínez Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €350k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | Obolon | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Veres Rivne | Obolon | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Livyi Bereg | Veres Rivne | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Prykarpattya | Livyi Bereg | Free / loan | €100k |
| 15 Feb 2021 | Without Club | Prykarpattya | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jul 2020 | Volyn Lutsk | Without Club | Unknown | €175k |
| 29 Jan 2018 | Zhemchuzhyna O. | Volyn Lutsk | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Mar 2016 | Metalist II | Zhemchuzhyna O. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Chornomorets II | Metalist II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Chornomor. U19 | Chornomorets II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Metalurg D. U17 | Chornomor. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.