Iván Barbero
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iván Barbero's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (1904 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €506k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1904 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1342
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €466k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -36% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | ST | 31 | 1904 | 62% | 8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 1342 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | ST | 6 | 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 1623 | 1446 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 73 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Boateng Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Aleksey Kashtanov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Kléber Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vladimir Obukhov Premier Liga · 2020 | 28 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Anders Jacobsen Superliga · 2016 | 27 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Jordan Remacle Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Denys Kozhanov Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Thievy Bifouma Super Lig · 2019 | 27 | €850k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2025 | Dep. La Coruña | Arouca | €300k | €700k |
| 21 Jul 2023 | Osasuna B | Dep. La Coruña | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Sept 2022 | CA Osasuna | Osasuna B | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | AD Alcorcón | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €300k |
| 28 Aug 2020 | CA Osasuna | AD Alcorcón | Free / loan | €300k |
| 17 Aug 2020 | UD Almería | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jan 2020 | CA Osasuna | UD Almería | Free / loan | €100k |
| 29 Jan 2020 | Osasuna B | CA Osasuna | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Almería U19 | Osasuna B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.