Óscar Valentín
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Óscar Valentín's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-5.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.46x the positional average in the league (2115 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €696k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2115 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €527k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -72% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2115 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1469 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 34 | 1829 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1504 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2719 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 1496 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2567 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1515 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2578 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1540 | 1389 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 277 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1283 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 204 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 460 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Feulner Bundesliga · 2015 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Iriney Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €1.8M | €400k | fell |
| Édgar Barreto Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Phillipp Mwene Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Matthew Etherington Premier League · 2013 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Vladislav Kulik Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €3.0M | €300k | fell |
| Artur Tlisov Premier Liga · 2013 | 31 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Carlos Sánchez Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | R. Majadahonda | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Alcobendas | R. Majadahonda | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Rayo B | Alcobendas | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Alcobendas | Rayo B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Rayo B | Alcobendas | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Alcobendas | Rayo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Majad. U19 | Alcobendas | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.