Sergey Volkov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergey Volkov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €857k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1404 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1345
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €616k – €2.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -53% to +26%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1404 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RB | 21 | 1404 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 1345 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RB | 3 | 124 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1222 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | RB | 22 | 1724 | 64% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1319 | 1405 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | RB | 27 | 2127 | 79% | 1 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 1319 | 1405 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | RW | 4 | 224 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.44 | 1408 | 1371 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 3 | 237 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 7 | 347 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 11 | 690 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Ligeon Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Thibault Vlietinck Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Formose Mendy Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 22 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Alessio Castro-Montes Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 22 | €1.2M | €5.0M | rose |
| Samuel Inkoom Super League 1 · 2014 | 25 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Erik Palmer-Brown Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €600k | €1.5M | rose |
| Wilfried Kanon Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Moussa Sissako Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FK Sochi | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 22 Jul 2025 | Zenit S-Pb | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Krasnodar | Zenit S-Pb | €5.0M | €4.5M |
| 1 Mar 2022 | Krasnodar 2 | Krasnodar | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Krasnodar II | Krasnodar 2 | Unknown | €200k |
| 27 Jul 2018 | Krasnodar U17 | Krasnodar II | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Chita U19 | Krasnodar U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.