
Walid Cheddira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Walid Cheddira's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (1211 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1211 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.63
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1512
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €795k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -51% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1211 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | ST | 17 | 1003 | 29% | 3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.63 | 1512 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | ST | 16 | 208 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.66 | 1492 | 1405 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 22 | 631 | 18% | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.56 | 1524 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | ST | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1381 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Frosinone Calcio | Serie A | ST | 36 | 2130 | 62% | 7 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.65 | 1478 | 1308 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Frosinone Calcio | 3 | 192 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Oliech Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Romain Del Castillo Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Maxime Barthelmé Ligue 1 · 2016 | 28 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Maxime Lestienne Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Ignacio Pussetto Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.7M | flat |
| Manolo Gabbiadini Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andrey Galabinov Serie A · 2018 | 30 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Diniyar Bilyaletdinov Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Lecce | Napoli | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Napoli | Lecce | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Sassuolo | Napoli | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Napoli | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Espanyol | Napoli | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 27 Aug 2024 | Napoli | Espanyol | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Frosinone | Napoli | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Napoli | Frosinone | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 20 Aug 2023 | Bari | Napoli | €3.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Parma | Bari | €3.7M | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Bari | Parma | Free / loan | €250k |
| 19 Jul 2021 | Parma | Bari | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Mantova | Parma | Free / loan | €200k |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Parma | Mantova | Free / loan | €175k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Lecco | Parma | Free / loan | €175k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Parma | Lecco | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jan 2020 | Arezzo | Parma | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Jul 2019 | Parma | Arezzo | Free / loan | €200k |
| 4 Jul 2019 | Sangiustese | Parma | €93k | €200k |
| 15 Jul 2017 | Loreto | Sangiustese | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.