Walid Cheddira

28 yrs · Striker · Morocco
SSC Napoli · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€784k – €2.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.3M – €3.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€795k – €2.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.1M – €2.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€784k – €2.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.3M – €3.1M
Projected value (24 months)€795k – €2.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Walid Cheddira's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (1211 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 54

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage46th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.4M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1211 (35% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.37
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.63
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
46 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1361
Opponent strength
1512
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€795k – €2.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -51% to +4%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1211 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US LecceSerie AST17100329%310.360.63151213520.93
2025/26US SassuoloSerie AST162086%100.430.66149214050.93
2024/25RCD Espanyol BarcelonaLaligaST2263118%110.290.56152414110.95
2024/25SSC NapoliSerie AST1110%000.000.38138116600.99
2023/24Frosinone CalcioSerie AST36213062%710.340.65147813080.98

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupUS Sassuolo16900—
2024/25Copa Del ReyRCD Espanyol Barcelona15900—
2024/25Italy CupSSC Napoli1400—
2023/24Italy CupFrosinone Calcio319210—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dennis Oliech
Ligue 1 · 2013
28€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Romain Del Castillo
Ligue 1 · 2022
26€3.0M€10.0Mrose
Maxime Barthelmé
Ligue 1 · 2016
28€1.3M€800kfell
Maxime Lestienne
Laliga · 2018
26€2.5M€4.0Mrose
Ignacio Pussetto
Serie A · 2022
27€3.0M€2.7Mflat
Manolo Gabbiadini
Serie A · 2022
31€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Andrey Galabinov
Serie A · 2018
30€1.2M€300kfell
Diniyar Bilyaletdinov
Premier Liga · 2014
29€1.8M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026LecceNapoliFree / loan€2.0M
22 Jan 2026NapoliLecceFree / loan€2.3M
21 Jan 2026SassuoloNapoliFree / loan€2.3M
1 Sept 2025NapoliSassuoloFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2025EspanyolNapoliFree / loan€2.5M
27 Aug 2024NapoliEspanyolFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jun 2024FrosinoneNapoliFree / loan€6.0M
21 Aug 2023NapoliFrosinoneFree / loan€7.5M
20 Aug 2023BariNapoli€3.0M€7.5M
1 Jul 2022ParmaBari€3.7M€250k
30 Jun 2022BariParmaFree / loan€250k
19 Jul 2021ParmaBariFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2021MantovaParmaFree / loan€200k
4 Sept 2020ParmaMantovaFree / loan€175k
30 Jun 2020LeccoParmaFree / loan€175k
31 Jan 2020ParmaLeccoFree / loan€200k
30 Jan 2020ArezzoParmaFree / loan€200k
22 Jul 2019ParmaArezzoFree / loan€200k
4 Jul 2019SangiusteseParma€93k€200k
15 Jul 2017LoretoSangiusteseUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.