
Romain Del Castillo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Romain Del Castillo's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-6.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2646 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2646 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1471
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €4.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 45 pts; team strength down (-64 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -67% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | RW | 32 | 2646 | 86% | 9 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 1471 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | RW | 26 | 1259 | 41% | 6 | 4 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 1456 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | RW | 33 | 2521 | 82% | 8 | 8 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 1491 | 1504 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | RW | 27 | 1430 | 42% | 6 | 7 | 0.82 | 0.73 | 1441 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | RW | 19 | 984 | 29% | 0 | 7 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 1369 | 1369 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 3 | 25 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1375 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 25 | 636 | 19% | 0 | 5 | 0.71 | 0.47 | 1405 | 1445 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 21 | 1242 | 49% | 2 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 1414 | 1507 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 29 | 1338 | 39% | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 1443 | 1488 | 0.82 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RW | 2 | 34 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1423 | 1533 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 316 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 178 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2019/20 | Trophee Des Champions | Stade Rennais FC | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1714 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Negredo Premier League · 2017 | 32 | €7.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Serie A · 2018 | 30 | €9.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Hugo Almeida Super Lig · 2014 | 30 | €7.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Anthony Modeste Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €6.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Habib Diallo Ligue 1 · 2023 | 28 | €18.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Ludovic Ajorque Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €6.8M | €16.0M | rose |
| Joãozinho Premier Liga · 2019 | 31 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Aílton Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €3.6M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2021 | Stade Rennais | Stade Brestois | €1.5M | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lyon | Stade Rennais | €2.0M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Nîmes Olympique | Lyon | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Aug 2017 | Lyon | Nîmes Olympique | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Bourg-en-Bresse | Lyon | Free / loan | €800k |
| 2 Jul 2016 | Lyon | Bourg-en-Bresse | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Vénissieux Jgd. | FC Lyon U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | ASSP Jugend | Vénissieux Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.