Romain Del Castillo

30 yrs · Right winger (also ST) · France
Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 · Foot: left · Height: 172 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€7.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.2M – €5.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.2M – €6.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.9M – €4.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.7M – €4.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.2M – €5.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.2M – €6.5M
Projected value (24 months)€1.9M – €4.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Romain Del Castillo's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-6.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2646 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 50

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average70.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.9M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-50% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2646 (87% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.41
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.39
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
71 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1407
Opponent strength
1471
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.9M – €4.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 45 pts; team strength down (-64 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -67% to -6%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1RW32264686%930.410.38147114070.88
2024/25Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1RW26125941%640.710.48145614720.88
2023/24Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1RW33252182%880.570.63149115040.87
2022/23Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1RW27143042%670.820.73144113990.82
2021/22Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1RW1998429%070.640.51136913690.86
2021/22Stade Rennais FCLigue 1RW3251%000.000.30137515810.86
2020/21Stade Rennais FCLigue 1RW2563619%050.710.47140514450.75
2019/20Stade Rennais FCLigue 1ST21124249%250.510.47141415070.82
2018/19Stade Rennais FCLigue 1RW29133839%030.200.27144314880.82
2015/16Olympique LyonLigue 1RW2341%000.000.35142315330.78

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueStade Brestois 297316001659
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingStade Rennais FC299101508
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueStade Rennais FC4130001588
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC5178001545
2019/20Trophee Des ChampionsStade Rennais FC16001714
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC4149001461

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Álvaro Negredo
Premier League · 2017
32€7.5M€2.0Mfell
Leonardo Pavoletti
Serie A · 2018
30€9.0M€4.8Mfell
Hugo Almeida
Super Lig · 2014
30€7.8M€1.0Mfell
Anthony Modeste
Bundesliga · 2016
28€6.0M€16.0Mrose
Habib Diallo
Ligue 1 · 2023
28€18.0M€6.5Mfell
Ludovic Ajorque
Ligue 1 · 2020
26€6.8M€16.0Mrose
Joãozinho
Premier Liga · 2019
31€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Aílton
Premier Liga · 2014
30€3.6M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Aug 2021Stade RennaisStade Brestois€1.5M€4.5M
1 Jul 2018LyonStade Rennais€2.0M€1.5M
30 Jun 2018Nîmes OlympiqueLyonFree / loan€1.5M
30 Aug 2017LyonNîmes OlympiqueFree / loan€800k
30 Jun 2017Bourg-en-BresseLyonFree / loan€800k
2 Jul 2016LyonBourg-en-BresseFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2016Olymp. Lyon BLyonUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2015Olymp. Lyon U19Olymp. Lyon BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Olymp. Lyon U17Olymp. Lyon U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012FC Lyon U17Olymp. Lyon U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Vénissieux Jgd.FC Lyon U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010ASSP JugendVénissieux Jgd.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.