Erdem Canpolat
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Erdem Canpolat's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 6.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €191k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 630 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1323
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €302k – €815k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -24% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 630 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | GK | 7 | 630 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1323 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | Pendikspor | Super Lig | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1321 | 1167 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 10 | 811 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1310 | 1295 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1238 | 1312 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1371 | 1208 | 0.37 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarık Çetin Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Filip Manojlovic Super League 1 · 2019 | 23 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Manolis Stefanakos Super League 1 · 2016 | 27 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Bogdan Ovsyannikov Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €600k | €900k | rose |
| Antonis Stergiakis Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €300k | €350k | flat |
| Ali Emre Yanar Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Michalis Zaropoulos Super League 1 · 2016 | 25 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Neofytos Michail Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €300k | €400k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | Pendikspor | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €550k |
| 10 Aug 2023 | Kasimpasa | Pendikspor | Free / loan | €450k |
| 17 Sept 2020 | Schalke 04 II | Kasimpasa | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Schalke 04 U19 | Schalke 04 II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Schalke 04 U17 | Schalke 04 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Schalke 04 Yth. | Schalke 04 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Hamborn 07 Yth. | Schalke 04 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | VfL Bochum Yth. | Hamborn 07 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.